I present to you Publication No.37 of The Weekly Tidbit. I hope it adds value to your Dinar speculation understanding, brings you a new angle at which to view things, gives you a different perspective, and provides you information on news and opportunities you didn't know before.
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Note Count vs. Money Supply
By Dinar Daddy (Concept Attributed to Breitling)
Breitling discovered something that has stumped the Dinar following community for years. I'm writing this to bring forward the thoughts he shared with me regarding the difference between the Money Supply we've been assuming versus the currency bank note supply, which is all that really matters in all of this. His concept made perfect sense to me, and officially brings to an end the arguments offered by so many naysayers that the Iraqi Dinar has too many bank notes in circulation to ever revalue its currency at any significant level to make a difference. Some estimates by incorrect calculators have the number standing at over 70 Trillion in currency outstanding!
After reading this, feel free to visit Breitling's blog and listen to his more in-depth explanation of the monetary supply at http://breitlingcurrency.blogspot.com/. You can access that recording by CLICKING HERE.
Many have read my previous post on Dinar Daddy's Tidbits titled, "Dinar Daddy Gives Food for Thought: Coincidence or Signs?". In that post I talk about the note count being reduced to an eventual goal of 1 billion. I speculate in my post that the original plan bringing Iraq's currency value to the original $3.92 or thereabouts was based on a 1 billion currency note count. Anything above that count would simply be a lesser valuation than $3.92. You can read that post to get what I'm driving at in my thoughts there.
Anyway, taking that concept into account, and further coming to an understanding about what Monetary Supply means leads us to the point of this article... that note count does NOT equal Monetary Supply. Monetary Supply constitutes far more than note count only. Taking this as the basis of our argument, we can deduce that when naysayers state they don't believe in the "RV" of the IQD because of the excessive bank notes in circulation, we can assertively say they are getting confused between what is being referred to as the Money Supply thinking the articles are talking about circulated outstanding bank notes.
Money Supply Definition
Money Supply is the aggregate amount of monetary assets available in a country at a specific time. According to the Financial Times...
- Money Supply M0 and M1, also known as narrow money, includes coins and notes in circulation and other assets that are easily convertible into cash.
- Money Supply M2 includes M1 plus short-term time deposits in banks.
- Money Supply M3 includes M2 plus longer-term time deposits.
- Money Supply M4 includes M3 plus other deposits. And the term broad money is used to describe Money Supply M2, M3, and/or M4.
The ONLY definition that matters to us for purposes of the Iraqi Dinar is the M0 and M1, the narrow money. Not even all of THAT definition would impact the valuation, as even part of it includes "other assets that are easily convertible into cash", meaning the "other assets" are NOT bank notes!
So, what does all of this mean? Simple... All the articles we've been reading in the news surrounding the Money Supply of Iraq have been written without sharing the whole picture, or were written to dissuade, confuse, manipulate our thinking, or simply by someone not understanding the true meaning of Money Supply versus bank notes in circulation, and how they impact the overall valuation of Iraq's official currency, the IQD.
Our pessimistic conclusions were wrong because we didn't have the whole truth presented to us by the news outlets, and we didn't have the complete understanding to know the difference. We were reading about the M4, M3, and M2 numbers, which never specifically talked about the bank note counts themselves. No effort was made to clarify what they were actually speaking about. They probably didn't know fully themselves what they were presenting and how it impacted their currency and country.
All this bodes well for a healthy Iraqi Dinar valuation some day in the future.
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OIL: TAQA Investing $300M in Altrush Field
TAQA, the Abu Dhabi National Energy Company, has now officially released their full results for last year, 2013, and has announced that they have secured approval for their development plans in Iraq's Atrush field. The first production of oil is expected to be in 2015.
TAQA itself is an active company throughout the energy value chains as well as water desalination and power generation, gas and oil exploration/production and innovative and emerging technologies. They are the biggest independent producer of power in North Africa and the Middle east, and follow global organic growth and acquisitions. This company will definitely bring something to Iraq's table, as the oil industry is a very large and profitable market.
They focus on waste-to-energy, solar and wind projects in Northern Europe, North America, Morocco, the UAE and now Iraq. They have gas and oil exploration in the Atrush field that is located in the Kurdish region in Iraq. They operate the Atrush Block which is 85 kilometers northwest from Erbil and 30,000 bpd, barrels per day of oil, are expected to be produced in early 2015.
The Atrush field was located in 2011 and has expectations for benefits that will be long-term in regards to the community and the region. They have a 25-year approval from the KRGs Field Development Plan to maximize the findings of oil resources in that area. The second phase has expectations to add on 30,000 more bpd with another production facility. TAQA and their partners are aiming to get the field's maximum production of bpd to 100,000 while evaluating feasibility with production of associated gas, natural, initially for the domestic markets.
TAQA's, along with their partners, made an announcement last August that they drilled an added tester well in Atrush. They analyzed core samples that included appraisals of water/oil definition contact, oils viscosity/gravity variation, extent of the quality reservoir, porosity and permeability data. They have now appointed a Managing Director, Leo Koot, of TAQA placed in Iraq. The TAQA's Head of Oil and Gas and the Executive Officer, David Cook, stated; "Leo Koot has now built our United Kingdom business, successfully, from scratch. We have now been leading a North Sea gas and oil operator, and I am very proud that the task has a successful leader to build these new operations that will be in Iraq."
In 2012 alone, TAQA has produced 135,000 bpd on average with their operations in the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, the Kurdistan region and North America. The oil industry in Iraq is huge and it keeps growing every day, which is a great thing. TAQA producing 135,000 barrels of oil per day is astounding and an extreme accomplishment that the company should be proud of. The importance of oil is of great importance, because it makes the world go round, and keeps the markers moving. The money that is made when it comes to the oil industry cannot compare with anything else what so ever.
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The Kurdistan Region of IraqBy Dinar Daddy
The Kurdistan Region of Iraq is bordering Syria over towards the west, Iran in the east, and Turkey towards the north. It's a region that is autonomous, and in the federal area of Iraq.
The Kurdish Region's capital city is Erbil, which can also be known as "Hawler", and has a population of almost 4,000,000 people. The Kurdistan Region of Iraq is actually quite interesting, but you never read much about why. It's smack dab in the middle of a lot that goes on in Iraq and has also been known to start a problem. I've heard a personal story from a "friend", who works on the oil rigs every other month in Erbil who stays in the American part of Iraq that the Kurdish can get rowdy, but that they have a different culture. Not so much as different, so to speak, but unique.
The languages spoken in this Region are Kurdish, which is obvious, Arabis, Turkmani, Assyrian (which is rare, as it is not spoken in most areas) and Armenian. Kurdish is a very distinct language and borders onto Pashto and Persian, Iranian languages. The currency of the Kurdish Region is the same as all of Iraq as they use the Iraqi Dinar, or IQD. The Region's official languages in regards to the purposes of the government are Arabic and Kurdish.
The main religion in the Region are the Sunni Muslims with the school of Shafi'i, with some Muslims following Sufi orders. However, there are some Christians with the Syrian Orthodox, Syrian Catholic, Assyrian Churches of the East, Catholic Chaldean and Armenian churches, as well.
The most interesting thing that I find about the Kurdish region, is that they are the only people to practice Yazidism, which consists of 600,000-1,000,000 adherents. The town that is most holy to Yezedis is called Lalesh, Northern Iraq, and they can also be found in Western Europe.
The Region has 7 universities in total and the most interesting of them all being the University of Kurdistan-Hawler, English language, which is in Erbil and opened in 2006 during the month of September. Another university is the American University of Iraq which is in Suleimaniah and opened in 2007 during the fall.
The summer climate, usually very hot, and fertile soil makes the Region a great place to grow orchards that have, for example, grapes, figs, pomegranates and walnuts. Kurdistan's dairy products are known to be exceptional, with their goats, buffalo and sheep.
Nawroz is a time of celebration, also known as the Spring Equinox of the New Year, where everyone dresses up in their best clothes. They have picnics in the countryside and drink a blend of black and sweetened tea.